I know nothing about economics but neither, it seems, does anyone else. It’s become a bit like religion – you follow the prophet that sort of feels right though you can’t really explain why, because these days economists don’t seem to have any more clue than the rest of us.
I’m pretty much going with Larry Elliot’s view. I don’t think there will be a double dip (at least, I bloody hope not) but very slow growth is likely to be the norm for the next couple of years. Manufacturing and SMEs have been doing well but talk of spending cuts is scaring the hell out of people.
Thinking of the economy brings to mind an image of someone I once saw trying to tow a caravan up Sutton Bank’s 25% gradient. It was painfully slow and it took him ages. He slipped back occasionally but he got to the top in the end. The UK economy will get back to its pre-recession level eventually but it probably won’t be this side of the general election.